The Lingering Question: How Was Lula Elected? Unpacking Brazil's Political Landscape
The Lingering Question: How Was Lula Elected? Unpacking Brazil's Political Landscape. In recent months, the popularity of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's government has faced a significant decline, both nationally and in the state of Rio de Janeiro.
NEWS
Unveiled Brazil
6/2/20253 min read
The Lingering Question: How Was Lula Elected? Unpacking Brazil's Political Landscape
In recent months, the popularity of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's government has faced a significant decline, both nationally and in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Recent surveys reveal government disapproval has reached an unprecedented 53.7% of respondents, the highest in the historical series. In Rio de Janeiro, rejection of the government stands at 59.9%, according to Paraná Pesquisas Institute data. These figures reflect growing public dissatisfaction, driven by factors such as tax increases, a soaring fiscal deficit, persistent inflation, escalating violence, and renewed corruption scandals.
Economy & Taxes: A Heavy Burden on Brazilians
Since the start of Lula's third term, economic policies have drawn sharp criticism. The increase in the Financial Operations Tax (IOF) sparked strong reactions from the productive sector and the National Congress, which is actively attempting to block the measure. The government justifies the tax burden increase by citing the need to balance public accounts, but the population directly feels the impact of these decisions. Inflation, despite pledges of control, remains above the Central Bank's target, with projections of 5.50% for 2025, well above the 3% objective. The high cost of living and rising food and service prices have directly impacted the president's electoral base.
Fiscal Deficit & Deteriorating Public Accounts in Brazil
The Brazilian government faces a significant fiscal challenge. Despite a surplus of R$ 17.8 billion recorded in April, the accumulated nominal public sector deficit over the last 12 months stands at a historic R$ 934.4 billion. Moody's, a leading credit rating agency, downgraded Brazil's credit outlook, citing deteriorating debt payment capacity and high inflation. The fiscal target of zeroing the deficit in 2025 appears increasingly distant, and measures like the IOF increase are seen as palliative, failing to address the structural problem of public accounts.
Violence & Insecurity: Brazil's Persistent Challenge
Violence remains a top concern for Brazilians. The 2025 Violence Atlas revealed that, despite a reduction in the homicide rate, Brazil still grapples with high crime rates. In Rio de Janeiro, the situation is even more critical, with criminal factions dominating territories and expanding their influence. Public insecurity directly impacts the perception of the government, which has struggled to present effective solutions to curb violence.
Corruption: A Haunting Specter Over Lula's Government
Corruption scandals have again taken center stage with the National Social Security Institute (INSS) fraud case, which diverted billions of reais from retirees and pensioners. The episode triggered a political crisis, leading to the dismissal of the INSS president and the establishment of a Joint Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPMI) to investigate the deviations. Corruption, already a major concern for Brazilians, is now seen as the country's biggest problem, surpassing even crime.
So, How Did Lula Win? Understanding the 2022 Brazilian Election
Given this landscape of dissatisfaction, the persistent question is: how did Lula manage to get elected? The answer involves several factors. In 2022, the former president skillfully capitalized on the previous government's desgaste and mobilized his electoral base with promises of economic recovery and social policies. However, the reality of his third term has been marked by challenges that test his governance capacity. Declining popularity, economic woes, and corruption scandals suggest that the trust placed by voters may be eroding.
The future of the government will depend on Lula's ability to reverse this trend. Without structural changes and an effective response to public demands, dissatisfaction could become an insurmountable obstacle to his continued power. The question that persists may soon transform into another: How will Lula manage to govern until the end of his term?
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